Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - What Then Are We To Do, and Believe?

 

"Prayer is not a refuge in which to hide from our responsibilities, nor an anesthetic to numb the pain provoked by so much injustice.  Rather, it is the most selfless, universal and transformative response to death: we are a people who are already risen!  Within each of us, within every human being, the interior Teacher teaches peace, urges us toward encounter and inspires us to make supplication.  Let us rise from the rubble!  Nothing can confine us to a predetermined fate, not even in this world where there never seem to be enough graves, for people continue to crucify one another and eliminate life, with no regard to justice and mercy.

Prayer teaches us how to act.  In prayer, our limited human possibilities are joined to the infinite possibilities of God.  Thoughts, words and deeds then break the demonic cycle of evil and are placed at the service of the Kingdom of God.  A Kingdom in which there is no sword, no drone, no vengeance, no trivialization of evil, no unjust profit, but only dignity, understanding and forgiveness.  It is here that we find a bulwark against that delusion of omnipotence that surrounds us and is becoming increasingly unpredictable and aggressive.

Even the holy Name of God, the God of life, is being dragged into discourses of death.  A world of brothers and sisters with one heavenly Father vanishes, as in a nightmare, giving way to a reality populated by enemies.  We are met by threats, rather than the invitation to listen and to come together.  Brothers and sisters, those who pray are aware of their own limitations; they do not kill or threaten with death.  Instead, death enslaves those who have turned their backs on the living God, turning themselves and their own power into a mute, blind and deaf idol, to which they sacrifice every value, demanding that the whole world bend its knee."

Pope Leo XIV, Prayer Vigil for Peace, Rome April 11, 2026

"The dazzling and consuming act of pride that transformed the angel of light into an angel and prince of darkness condemned him to an insatiable, and therefore desperate, need to acquire. The loss of the wellspring of life gives rise to an essentially inextinguishable thirst. The entire world can not fill the emptiness which the awareness of having left their rightful place in the world forms in the heart of a creature.

Having fallen from the eternal, Satan's desires are endless and insatiable. Having fallen from pure Being, he seeks to possess. But the problem is forever insoluble. For in order to have and possess, it would be necessary to have life, to Be, and he is connected to life no longer. All he takes into himself he destroys."

Denis de Rougemont, La Part du Diable, Switzerland, 1944

"They devoted themselves to the teachings of the apostles and to fellowship, to the breaking of bread and to the prayers.  Amazement and awe came upon everyone, and many wonders and signs were done through the apostles.  All who believed were together and had all things in common; they would sell their property and possessions and divide them among all according to each one’s need.  Every day they devoted themselves to meeting together in the temple area and to breaking bread in their homes.  They ate their meals with joy and sincerity of heart, praising God and enjoying respect among all the people.  And every day the Lord added to the number of those who were being saved."

Acts 2:42-47

“When we leave this church tonight, we must move beyond prayer.  As citizens and believers in this democracy that we cherish so deeply, we must advocate for peace with our representatives and leaders. It is not enough to say we have prayed.  We must also act.  For it is very possible that the negotiations will fail because of recalcitrance on both sides, and the president will move to re-enter this immoral war.  At that critical juncture, as disciples of Jesus Christ called to be peacemakers in the world, we must answer vocally and in unison:  'No. Not in our name. Not at this moment. Not with our country.'”

Cardinal Robert McElroy, Homily Vigil Mass for Peace, Washington DC, 11 April 2026


The 'deal' for an enduring ceasefire between the US/Israel - Iran fell apart rather quickly this weekend. I am sure you can read about the questionable conduct and progress of the discussions for yourself. 

And on Sunday evening the stock futures opened significantly lower as one might have expected, given that they had recently rallied sharply on word of the ceasefire and discussions.

But fear not, as is customary on a Monday these days, stocks were elevated higher by steady program buying that squeezed all the precautionary shorts from over the weekend, and then some.

This is a familiar play, in my opinion orchestrated and promoted by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, with his facilities in the ESF, and his cronies in hedge funds and Wall Street.

The Dollar took a serious dive.

Gold and silver were hit hard overnight, but eventually took back their losses and posted modest gains.

Even Bitcoin managed to gain back everything it had lost over the weekend, and ended up where it closed on Friday evening.

So, great success, right?

Welcome to Fantasy Island.   

If you have not figured out yet what is happening, and the risks that are involved, then I probably won't be able to say anything that can penetrate and persuade.  

You will just have to see. 

This is certain to become more interesting.  I would, however, like to be watching this unfold from a much greater distance.

Have a pleasant evening. 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Ashes, Ashes, We All Fall Down

 

"Far-called, our navies melt away;
     On dune and headland sinks the fire:
Lo, all our pomp of yesterday
     Is one with Nineveh and Tyre.
Judge of the Nations, spare us yet,
Lest we forget—lest we forget!"

Rudyard Kipling, Recessional, 1897

"During the Roman Triumph, when a great hero was recognized by a procession through the city, a slave was kept behind them, whispering in their ear: Memento mori, 'Remember that thou art a man.'  Perhaps a member of their modern retinue can whisper this to our financiers and the politicians,  as they bask in their moments of power and triumph, and forget their commonality with the people.  But madness has no discourse with logic."

Jesse, Memento Mori, 24 July 2011

"Peter, verily, verily, I say to you, when you were young, you dressed yourself, and walked where you liked.  But when you are old, you will stretch out your your hands, and another will dress you, and will take you where you would not like to go.'"

John 21:17-19

"Et Jehanne, la bonne Lorraine,
   Qu'Anglois bruslerent à Rouen;
Où sont-ilz, Vierge souveraine?
   Mais où sont les neiges d'antan."

François Villon, Ballade des dames du temps jadis, 1489

"Where are the princes of this world, and those who lorded it over the creatures of the earth?  Those who made sport of the birds of the air, and hoarded up riches in which they trusted.  Those for whom there is no limit to their greed, those who schemed to get more wealth, and were always anxious about their possessions.  Now there is no trace of them.  They have vanished down into the earth, and others have risen to take their place."

Baruch 3:16-19

"Wir sind aus solchem Zeug, wie das zu Träumen,
    Und Träume schlagen so die Augen auf
Wie kleine Kinder unter Kirschenbäumen,
    Und drei sind Eins: ein Mensch, ein Ding, ein Traum."

H. von Hofmannsthal, Terzinen über Vergänglichkeit, 1894

"Fascist politics invokes a mythic past which may be religiously, racially, or culturally pure. The dangers of fascist politics come from the way in which it dehumanizes segments of the population. By excluding these groups, it limits the capacity for empathy among citizens, leading to the justification of inhumane treatment, from repression of freedom, mass imprisonment, expulsion, and mass extermination. Schools are to indoctrinate the glorious achievements of the dominant race."

Jason Stanley, How Fascism Works, 2018

"A true opium of the people is the belief in nothingness after death, the huge solace, the huge comfort of thinking that for our betrayals, our greed, our cowardice, our murders, we are not going to be judged.”

Czeslaw Milosz, Discreet Charm of Nihilism, NYRB November 19, 1998


Stocks did a little pop and flop today, as the course of 'peace talks' in Islamabad between the US and Iran are on shaky ground.   Iran insists that a cease fire must include Lebanon and the Israel incursions there, which have the appears of Gaza-like action.

Let's see if Trump can bring Netanyahu into the fold.   Dare he bring speak to him publicly as he has done to Zelensky?  

US Consumer Sentiment this morning was at an historic low as shown in the chart below.

The Dollar continued to slide.

Gold was held in check, but silver managed to take and hold a gain.

VIX is now at a recent low.  Not quite complacent, but relatively sans souci given the gravity of the situation and the state of the rapidly deteriorating global economy.

Nothing to see here but greatness, move along.

Trump has promised his staff that they will receive 'mass pardons' before he leaves office.

Take good care of your boss guys.   Goldenagers are always tripping the rift between this world and the next.  As the old Polish saying goes, 'Old age is no joke.'

Let's see how the weekend goes.  

Need little, want less, love more.  For those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them.

Have a pleasant weekend. 

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Hide Us From the Wrath of the Lamb

 

"Some men want war for sordid, others for idealistic, reasons; some for personal gain, others for impersonal principle.  But most of those who consciously want war and accept it, and so help to create its 'inevitability,' want it in order to shift the locus of their problems."

C. Wright Mills, The Causes of World War III, 1960

"If at the start this cancerous growth in the nation was not particularly noticeable, it was only because there were still enough forces at work that operated for the good, so that it was kept under control. As it grew larger, however, and finally in an ultimate spurt of growth attained ruling power, the tumor broke open, as it were, and infected the whole body."

Die Weiße Rose, Second Leaflet, Munich 1942

"We know that the harming or killing of men and women is wrong, and we are reluctant consciously to do what we know to be wrong.  But when particular men and women are thought of merely as representatives of a class, which has previously been defined as evil and personified in the shape of a devil, then the reluctance to hurt or murder disappears."

Aldous Huxley, Words and Behaviour, 1936

“Once they’re in power, narcissists consolidate their position by firing everyone who challenges them. In their place rise a plague of toadies, opportunists, and enablers equally guided by self-interest and short on scruples. So you end up with these individualistic cultures with no teamwork and low integrity.

True narcissists, Professor Charles O’Reilly says, are self-serving and lack integrity. 'They believe they’re superior and thus not subject to the same rules and norms. Studies show they’re more likely to act dishonestly to achieve their ends. They know they’re lying, and it doesn’t bother them. They don’t feel shame.

But even worse, narcissists change the companies or countries they lead, much like bad money drives out good, and those changes can outlast their own tenure. Divergent voices are silenced, flattery and servility are rewarded, and cynicism and apathy corrode any sense of shared purpose in a culture where everyone’s out for themselves. In the extreme, they can destroy the institution itself.'"

Lee Simmons, How Narcissistic Leaders Destroy From Within, April 30, 2020

"Whoever today still doubts the reality, the existence of demonic powers, has failed by a wide margin to understand the metaphysical background of this war.  Behind the concrete, the visible events, behind all the objective, logical considerations, we find that which goes beyond the merely rational: the struggle against evil, against the servants of the antichrist."

Die Weiße Rose, Fourth Leaflet, Munich, 1942

Stocks extended their rally today, in what appears to be a short squeeze, and a hand off of valuations at a near term top.

Gold and silver managed modest gains, as the Dollar continued to slump.

VIX fell to a surprisingly low mark, all things considered.

Is this optimism?  Or short term market manipulation.

Gentlemen and ladies, place your bets. 

My bet is on the continuation of the trends based on what is, rather than that which appears to be. 

The first chart below shows the growing 'empire of lawlessness' being fostered in the US.

It is not all that hard to discover what is actually happening around the world, if you will open your eyes and stop stuffing poison into your minds.

But to maintain the courage to remain standing, when the love of most grows cold, one must fill their fearful hearts with faith and love.

Have a pleasant evening.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Humpty Trumpty

 

"'When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, `it means just what I choose it to mean.'

`The question is,' said Alice, `whether you can make words mean so many different things.'

`The question is,' said Humpty Dumpty, `to be the master — that's all.'"

Lewis Carroll

"The current trend in the United States economy is not sustainable.  This is a realization that will penetrate the national consciousness slowly and unevenly.  Most economists agree on how this cycle will end (even if it is only privately), but the great debate is in the details of how, and most importantly, when.

If one does not accept that the situation is unsustainable, and believes that things can continue on endlessly just as they are, with the United States consuming the bulk of the world’s savings and production because of who we are, then perhaps this is symptomatic of the national epidemic we now suffer which the ancient Greeks called hubris.

'Where else will they put their surplus if not our debt?  To whom will they sell their goods if not to us?  Who will teach them how to live, and govern them?'  History shows that even if such trends last far beyond most expectations, eventually a day of reckoning arrives, in some frequently repeated patterns of systemic failure.

Things rarely reach a turning point when we expect it. A true sea change is slow to permeate the mentality of most people, because our experience is that what happened yesterday will happen again tomorrow, and a long cyclical turn occurs gradually and incrementally.  We forget what happened even a few years ago.  Predictions of a continuance of recent trends are the common currency of most pundits...

However, and this is a common sense notion that has been nearly forgotten by our generation, we have the ability to act in such a way so as to make the improbable more likely to occur, to tempt fate by our actions.  For example, there is a certain probability of sustaining an automobile accident in the normal course of our daily activities.  High risk behaviors, such as speeding excessively or drinking while driving, increase the chance of an accident.  If one engages in high risk activity, and nothing unusual happens, we become emboldened and think that since we were able to drink moderately and drive last month, so we can drink and drive this month and thereafter.  Perhaps next month we drink a little more for an indulgence, and again nothing happens.  This cycle continues until something changes our behavior, or simply ends when we literally hit the wall.

It would be our contention that the US is like such a driver, and we have been economically tempting fate with increasingly risky behaviors.  We are persuaded that there is almost nothing we cannot do, almost nothing that can happen, that is beyond our control.  It is the propensity for people to increase and repeat what they have been doing over time, to tempt fate through repeated and increasingly risky behavior, and to forget the possibility of a sequence of unfortunate events if you will, that gives rise to memorable events in history...

Predicting the failure of a complex system is not easy.  One can examine it as a whole, and determine that it will fail, and often calculate what must change in order to allow the system to function more reliably.  But it is often beyond our power to calculate exactly how it will fail, and consequently when it will fail.  This does not invalidate the observation that the system will ultimately fail.  It merely underscores the unpredictability of timing a failure with the degrees of freedom inherent in a calculation with a large number of exogenous variables.  It is not easy to predict exactly when a chronic DWI will demolish their automobile, but it remains relatively predictable to say that they will do so as long as they maintain
their current mode of behavior...

There are four major economic tipping points:

o Demand: a break in the level of consumption in the US caused by the
unwillingness or ability of households to incur further debt to support
consumption beyond real wage growth

o Supply: a major disruption in the supply of an essential commodity like
energy, food, or raw materials, or even the realization that a major
commodity is in shorter supply than expected, such as silver or oil.

o Monetary: an inability or unwillingness of foreign central banks to continue to
monetize the US trade deficit and budget deficit through the recycling of
their trade surplus into US debt securities.

o Systemic failure: the failure of major counter parties that threatens the
US financial system, particularly in the hugely leveraged derivatives
market.

There is still time to end this spiral of decline.

Jesse, Forecast: The Humpty Dumpty Economy, Jesse's Crossroads Cafe, 2005

"For these are a rebellious people, deceitful children, unwilling to listen to the instructions of the Lord. They say to their seers, ‘Do not see!’ and to the prophets, ‘Say nothing of what is right. Tell us only things that please us — prophesy illusions."

Isaiah 30:9-10

I thought today might be a good day to review an economic forecast for the US that made and posted on my old site, Jesse's Crossroads Cafe, on Yahoo Geocities in 2005.

Before you judge it too harshly try to remember what was happening in 2005, and what people were thinking.  The predominant opinion seemed to be a recovery, but with a virtually inevitable risk of deflation because of debt destruction.  

I did quite a bit of analysis and posting about the coming 'currency wars' and the nature of money in a fiat environment.  Most of it fell on deaf ears, because people don't listen except to quickly cobble together whatever ragtag rebuttal to support their own bias, laced with flourishes of pettiness.

The markets skyrocketed last night when Trump announced that a ceasefire and peace negotiations would be proceeding with Iran.   He neglected to include Netanyahu in those discussions, which were primarily driven by Pakistan and China, and not his brilliant negotiation.

Since Israel has a key role to play in making this ceasefire a reality, and since they have never honored any ceasefire in recent memory, the temptation to be skeptical is perhaps warranted. 

They are obviously polishing up J. D. Vance to be the next President, whenever that might be, but I can't help but thinking unless the Democrats pull out some rerun of past failure, which in itself is no long shot, then he might be a bit of a hard sell.  

I don't see much to make one enthusiastic, on either side of the aisle.  If Humpty Trumpty has a great fall, there are an ample number of humps eager to replace him.   And the jackals are gathering, even among his own. 

They lie, and admire their own lying.  It's their natural form of self-expression.  

So, will this ceasefire result in the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and peace breaking out in Iran, Lebanon, and dare we hope, the West Bank and Gaza?

Can Trump finally stand up to Netanyahu, and put America's interests first?   

Let us pray and hope, as gentle as lambs, but as wary as the circumstances and past history would suggest.  And given the continuing attacks on Lebanon by Israel, it is already faltering.

"The pride of Satan is hard for us on earth to comprehend, and therefore it is easy to fall into error and to share in it, even imagining that we are doing something grand and fine."  Fyodor Dostoevsky, The Brothers Karamazov

In the long term things appear to be dismal for the US economy.  The damage that the Trump administration, and the administrations of the past several presidents, have been doing are taking a toll.

Gold and silver rallied sharply, and gold in particular was smacked back down.  The currency war is alive and well, and gold is a popular participant to the dismay of the Western Banks who have been allowing gold to move steadily to strong hands to the East.

The Dollar has fallen off a bit and is hanging out on the 98 handle.

Recession is underway in the US.  Trump has squandered a dwindling stock of precious resources on foolish adventures, and the debt is becoming a serious problem, moreso than in the past.  

Gradually, and then, alas, all at once is the likely outcome in this sort of unfettered mega-trend.

If we do get a break in the price of oil and its related products stock up, because while Netanyahu's coalition has sway in the Knesset, there will be no peace in the Middle East.   

And then there is Ukraine, and the failing leadership in Europe.  

It's a perfect storm of venal incompetency in the West it seems, and that is not promising.

I do not like most politicians in general.  Of course there are some glowing exceptions, but their halos fade quickly, as power tends to attract the unattractively corruptible.  But this current crop of shameless liars and self-serving ciphers in high office is daunting. 

Continue making your preparations and various arrangements during this lull in the storm. 

There is still some time to bring into effect meaningful reform, but the odds continue to deteriorate. 

Have a pleasant evening.