Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Way of Illusions, the Way of the Cross

 

“Christianity is not stoicism.  The Cross does not sanctify us by destroying human feeling.  Detachment is not insensibility.  Too many ascetics fail to become great saints precisely because their rules and ascetic practices have merely deadened their humanity instead of setting it free to develop richly, in all its capacities, under the influence of grace.”

Thomas Merton, Thoughts In Solitude, 1958

"For these are a rebellious people, deceitful children, unwilling to listen to the instructions of the Lord. They say to their seers, ‘Do not see!’ and to the prophets, ‘Say nothing of what is right! Tell us only things that please us — prophesy illusions."

Isaiah 30:9-10

“This great masquerade of evil has played havoc with all our ethical concepts. For evil to appear disguised as light, compassion, historical necessity or even social justice is quite bewildering to anyone brought up on our traditional ethical concepts, while for the Christian who bases his life on the Word, it merely confirms the fundamental wickedness of evil. 

Mere waiting and looking on is not Christian behavior. Christians are called to compassion and to action. God marches right in. He chooses people as his instruments and performs His wonders where one would least expect them. 

In the Incarnation the whole human race recovers the dignity of the image of God. Thereafter, any attack, even on the least of men, is an attack on Christ, who took on the form of man, and in his own Person restored the image of God in all.  Through our relationship with the Incarnation, we recover our true humanity, and at the same time are delivered from that perverse individualism which is the consequence of sin, and recover our solidarity with all mankind."

Dietrich Bonhoeffer, Nachfolge, 1937

"Love does not make you weak, because it is the source of all strength — but it makes you see the nothingness of the illusory strength on which you depended before you knew it."

Léon Bloy, The Pilgrim of the Absolute

"Since God has accepted you to be among the holy people that He loves, you must clothe yourselves with tender mercy, kindness, humility, gentleness, and patience.  Make allowances for each other’s faults, and forgive anyone who offends you.  Remember, the Lord forgave you, so you must also forgive others.  Above all, clothe yourselves with love, which brings us all together in harmony.  And let the peace of the Lord rule in your hearts.  For as members of one body you are called to live in peace.  And always be thankful."

Colossians 3:12-15


The first sin was pride, the declaration of the fallen angel,'non serviam.'  All other sin flows from there. 

Stocks came in having recovered overnight from their losses to stage a rally up from a lower open.

But, as we have often seen, the same lies lose their potency with repetition.  And so stocks slumped into the close.  

They are tagging some key support levels that if breached may open the door to a much deeper correction.

Gold and silver were struggling again.

Bitcoin failed to rally from its decline to the lower half of its intermediate trading range.  Let's keep an eye on that.

VIX has been steadily climbing to reflect market risks, setting higher lows.

The Dollar has taken the midpoint of the 100 handle.  This is not such a positive for the real economy, since a stronger dollar makes imports cheaper and exports more expensive.  

People who make real products here are not advantaged.  But the financiers like it.

I am afraid that most people are not yet taking the global risks seriously, preferring to listen to the lies and delusions of those to whom they have declared their loyalties above God and country.

This is not going to end well.  When that realization hits home there may be a rush for the narrowing exits.

Have a pleasant evening. 

Palm Sunday

 

“He became what we are, that we might become what he is.”

Athanasius of Alexandria, The Incarnation of the Word

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Deadly Embrace of Pride

 

“People with advantages are loathe to believe that they just happen to be people with advantages.  They come readily to define themselves as inherently worthy of what they possess; they come to believe themselves 'naturally' elite; and, in fact, to imagine their possessions and their privileges as natural extensions of their own elite selves.”

C. Wright Mills, The Power Elite, April 1956

“An inflated consciousness is always egocentric and conscious of nothing but its own existence.  It is incapable of learning from the past, incapable of understanding contemporary events, and incapable of drawing right conclusions about the future.  It is hypnotized by itself and cannot be argued with.  It dooms itself to calamities that strike it dead."

Carl Jung, Psychology and Alchemy, 1944

“Pride is the beginning of sin. It was pride that changed angels into devils, and it is humility that makes men angels. There never has been, and never can be, any sin without pride."

Augustine, City of God and On Nature and Grace

"Almighty God lets the sinner go his own way, for He has given to man free-will, and does not want a forced obedience, but an obedience springing from love.  In his forgetfulness of God, the sinner squanders his fortune, the natural and supernatural gifts which he has received, using his natural gifts, his health, his physical powers, and his reason, to offend God.

The sinner falls under the dominance of Satan, and becomes the slave of his lowest passions, which are signified by the swine which the prodigal was forced to feed.  But the more he obeys his passions, the more dissatisfied he becomes.  He feels an emptiness and spiritual hunger in his heart which he is powerless to satisfy.  He only knows that he is miserable, and hateful to himself."

Friedrich Justus Knecht, The Prodigal Son, 1910

“A proud man is always looking down on things and people; and, of course, as long as you are looking down, you cannot see something that is above you.”

C.S. Lewis, Mere Christianity, 1944


Stocks were dropping harder today, and have made lower lows, erasing the phony rally triggered by Trump's announcement of a ceasefire.

Will we see another insider trading opportunity set up for Monday.  One can only wonder,

Gold and silver bounced after the drubbing they took in observance of the Comex option expiration.

Bitcoin has fallen back down to the bottom of the trading range it has been in since early February.

Why this back and forth in crypto?  I assume the players on the Street have noticed this, and are banging that back and forth like an ATM.  

VIX climbed but is nowhere near the panic level.

The Dollar latched back on to the 100 handle.

I have marked the 20 and 30 percent decline levels on the SP500 and NDX charts.  There is also an open gap on the SP500 down there.

I would not hazard to make a guess how this weekend will go.  Who was the last person to talk to Donald?

Need little, want less, love more.  For those who abide in love abide in God, and God in them.

Next week is Holy Week. 

Have a pleasant weekend.  

Retrospective: Moral Hazard

 

Here is a reprint of one of the earliest entries on this platform from March 2008.

Widely ignored at the time, looking back now perhaps we will see the truth in it, and have a mind to breaking the cycle of recklessness and pillaging.   How many financial institutions have we bailed out since 2008?  Has wealth become more or less concentrated in fewer hands.  Has rampant risk-taking and speculation been reined in and reformed?  Is our financial system safer and more secure now?  Is the real economy flourishing or being starved of organic growth and productive capital formation? 

 

Moral hazard is the probability that a party insulated from risk will behave differently from the way they would behave if fully exposed to the risk.  Moral hazard arises because an individual or institution does not bear the full consequences of its actions, and therefore has a tendency to act with increasing recklessness, literally 'without reckoning.'  It also encourages the rise to power of sociopaths in society as a whole.

It is difficult to explain moral hazard to tenured professors or the pampered princes of bureaucracy, who beat the drum with their silver spoons in support of shifting the risk of loss to the public every time that Wall Street falls into one of its own schemes and blows itself up.

It is a lesson that the average person learns by the age of twelve and relearns, sometimes spectacularly, at least once in young adulthood.  If you do something wrong there can be bad outcomes, and you will pay the price and penalty.  Unfortunately there is a small but powerful oligarchy of privilege that is trying to project themselves onto the global stage while believing that they are immune to ordinary consequence, and have become addicted to the notion that 'others must pay' for their failures.

Moral hazard comes from rewarding bad behaviour in markets with wristslaps and bailouts. It is a danger to the economy and to the public.

Now we might expect even more brazen attempts to game the system. This inevitably leads to wild gyrations in stocks and bonds and commodities.  History suggests ever more brazen price manipulation so disconnected from reality that actual physical shortages result because of the corruption of the market pricing mechanism.

The wristslaps and bailouts will continue until these modern maestros kill themselves or someone else, and create damage too great to be bought off in the backrooms of the county courthouse.

At least their descent from the heights will be impressive, if you can avoid the impact crater.